Cash For Predictions: Harnessing the Wisdom of the Many

by Lael

When Abraham Lincoln proclaimed, "You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time," he was making a generalization, not a prediction. Nonetheless, this famous correlation between numbers of people and knowledge does bring the prediction website Predictify to mind. Unlike the shrewd if depressive politician who was our sixteenth president, Predictify anticipates the savviness rather than the foolishness of the masses.

The site allows visitors to weigh in in response to questions about future events posed by other participants. The founders of Predictify got their idea from studies that demonstrate, much to the chagrin of high paid consultants, no doubt, that a large number of regular folks often out guess a smaller number of experts. By offering participants both the fun of a guessing game and the promise of occasional profit (however tiny and only when they guess the answer to premium questions correctly), Predictify taps into the font of collective wisdom.

Topics of questions posed range widely from economics, business and sports to tv ratings, natural disasters, and book sales. And, of course, in this season of high-stakes campaigning, political queries abound as well. So, if you're more concerned with who our forty fourth president will be than with what number sixteen said, visit Predictify. Whether you are a psychic channeler, an informed futurist or a wild guesser, my speculation is that you'll have some fun.

| 01/13/08 | Technology